Betting Lines
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -6000 PRES +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -21.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -17.1 (-7.1) | 140.5 (-16.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -17.9 (-7.9) | 138.4 (-14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -19.4 (-9.4) | 137.9 (-13.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -20.5 (-10.5) | 138.9 (-14.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 17-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#58) | -5.8 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#158) | -0.74 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#160) | -1.28 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#146) | 0.434 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 23.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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