Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -4000 UTM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -9.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -11.8 (+2.2) | 157.9 (+2.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -9.0 (+5.0) | 150.4 (+9.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.9 (+3.1) | 153.6 (+6.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -13.9 (+0.1) | 156.6 (+3.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#16) | 12.0 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#106) | 2.88 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#59) | 4.39 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#145) | 0.661 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 57.4% |
Game Analysis
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