Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -750 ODU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +30 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -4.1 (+25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -7.5 (+22.5) | 138.4 (+29.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.0 (+26.0) | 141.7 (+26.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.2 (+25.8) | 142.6 (+25.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.3 (+25.7) | 141.8 (+26.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#271) | -2.8 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#194) | -0.36 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#194) | -0.56 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#81) | 0.490 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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