Betting Lines
| Spread | COLU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | COLU -225 BU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLU +5 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | COLU -10.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-52.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLU -6.7 (-1.7) | 135.6 (-32.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLU -7.2 (-2.2) | 145.2 (-42.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLU -7.7 (-2.7) | 146.5 (-43.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLU -8.6 (-3.6) | 141.9 (-38.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#198) | -4.7 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#55) | 0.38 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#51) | -1.69 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#88) | 0.449 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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