Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -7500 APSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -8.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -8.9 (-1.9) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MISS -10.4 (-3.4) | 134.3 (+2.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MISS -8.0 (-1.0) | 134.8 (+2.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -8.3 (-1.3) | 134.8 (+2.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#84) | 4.5 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#124) | 1.07 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#142) | 1.64 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#211) | 0.557 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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