Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USD -280 GRAM +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USD -7.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -4.8 (+5.2) | 136.9 (+9.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -4.7 (+5.3) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -5.2 (+4.8) | 141.9 (+4.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -7.3 (+2.7) | 140.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#216) | -3.5 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#256) | 1.23 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#250) | 1.46 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#321) | 0.595 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 47.7% | 44.2% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 25.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 25.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 53.6% | 56.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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