Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -1200 HARV +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -20.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -18.9 (-14.9) | 134.8 (+29.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -15.9 (-11.9) | 139.5 (+24.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -19.2 (-15.2) | 139.3 (+24.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -17.8 (-13.8) | 135.5 (+28.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-4 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#32) | -1.4 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#9) | -0.00 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#14) | -0.42 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.701 (#19) | 0.434 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.17 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 36.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.