Betting Lines
| Spread | IUIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 188.5 Over |
| Money | CHSO +100 IUIN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +12 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | CHSO -2.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 185.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHSO -2.6 (+9.4) | 160.6 (+33.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHSO -2.8 (+9.2) | 161.9 (+32.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CHSO -3.5 (+8.5) | 163.7 (+30.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHSO -4.0 (+8.0) | 159.9 (+34.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHSO | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 89.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#298) | -2.7 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#249) | -0.59 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#251) | -0.80 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#283) | 0.530 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHSO | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 54.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 36.4% |
Game Analysis
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