Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +125 SFA -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -5.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -3.2 (+5.2) | 138.8 (+19.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.5 (+4.5) | 140.0 (+18.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.8 (+4.8) | 141.4 (+16.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -2.4 (+4.4) | 141.0 (+17.0) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 20-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#238) | 8.5 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#303) | 2.68 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#295) | 3.91 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.355 (#330) | 0.794 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 44.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 40.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 38.7% |
Game Analysis
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