Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SF -6000 NWST +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +20 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SF -21.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -19.9 (+0.1) | 143.5 (+4.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -16.9 (+3.1) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -17.6 (+2.4) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -17.6 (+2.4) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#138) | -12.6 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#215) | -2.45 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#221) | -3.80 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#196) | 0.224 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 38.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 57.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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