And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–10 on winners spread MAE 7.4 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ Kentucky +15.5 144.1 86% 88–96 ✓
Howard @ Bryant +7.9 145.5 78% 61–67 ✓
Delaware State @ NJIT +0.3 141.1 48% 72–81 ✓
Sam Houston @ Troy +5.6 150.9 71% 88–86 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Campbell +4.0 128.7 68% 78–75 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Saint Peter's +3.6 132.9 60% 69–61 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Bucknell +5.6 136.9 51% 56–67 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Bethune-Cookman +10.9 139.9 81% 73–79 ✓
UConn @ Texas -3.4 147.1 36% 81–71 ✓
Buffalo @ Hofstra +12.1 135.1 77% 68–102 ✓
Utah State @ Akron -1.8 144.2 41% 65–62 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Southeast Missouri State +3.9 140.8 43% 68–70 ✓
Colorado @ Richmond +1.3 149.7 53% 64–59 ✗
South Carolina State @ Tulsa +22.8 142.3 90% 70–90 ✓
Oregon @ Florida A&M -8.7 149.2 16% 67–54 ✓
UTSA @ Houston Christian -2.0 157.5 35% 89–87 ✓
Stonehill @ East Texas A&M +15.9 136.9 90% 86–97 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Oklahoma State +4.3 136.3 60% 68–96 ✓
UCF @ Charlotte +0.7 128.2 48% 74–71 ✗
SMU @ West Virginia -3.5 138.5 31% 70–58 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Missouri State +1.4 130.6 54% 69–87 ✓
Green Bay @ Montana State +11.5 129.8 72% 54–53 ✗
Navy @ San Diego +13.9 133.9 86% 59–67 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Santa Clara +21.7 140.5 90% 39–81 ✓
Bradley @ Tulane -0.6 147.3 47% 80–77 ✓
North Dakota @ Pacific +3.2 145.4 62% 73–71 ✗
UCLA @ Marquette +8.1 137.0 78% 69–71 ✓
UTEP @ California -3.9 146.0 39% 75–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ Iona -3.6 147.1 35% 80–76 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Florida International -3.7 149.1 35% 61–60 ✓
Binghamton @ Sacred Heart +4.4 142.6 66% 75–89 ✓
Central Michigan @ Stetson +2.3 137.0 62% 61–71 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Eastern Kentucky -3.3 147.1 44% 76–64 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ App State -5.3 148.1 34% 56–86 ✗
Morgan State @ Radford +8.7 143.0 81% 72–82 ✓
McNeese @ Texas State -6.1 139.2 31% 59–48 ✓
Buffalo @ Louisiana +8.4 147.5 78% 60–68 ✓
Oakland @ Marshall -2.1 143.9 44% 78–71 ✓
Syracuse @ Gonzaga +2.6 148.9 61% 57–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Northeastern +8.4 141.8 79% 76–93 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Chicago State -0.3 132.1 58% 78–77 ✓
Florida State @ Colorado +0.7 153.6 55% 77–71 ✗
Southern Utah @ Louisiana Tech +10.9 150.1 82% 53–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ The Citadel +3.0 133.2 63% 61–67 ✓
Illinois State @ High Point +1.2 140.7 56% 72–74 ✓
Drake @ Akron +0.5 145.1 51% 79–59 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Illinois -2.5 156.8 38% 82–76 ✓
Kennesaw State @ East Carolina +5.5 157.9 72% 84–85 ✓
Indiana State @ Rice -9.9 153.6 20% 103–88 ✓
UNLV @ Richmond +5.7 142.4 73% 65–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.