Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–14 on winners spread MAE 9.3 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina @ Grand Canyon +0.9 146.5 54% 75–68 ✗
Xavier @ Saint Mary's -6.1 132.7 30% 66–49 ✓
Florida International @ Akron +6.6 144.5 67% 71–77 ✓
Brown @ USC +14.6 145.1 82% 70–81 ✓
Southern @ Illinois +11.3 145.1 83% 60–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ California Baptist +8.6 137.2 78% 58–67 ✓
UCF @ South Dakota State -10.7 145.1 16% 83–80 ✓
Kent State @ Missouri State -2.6 149.5 35% 52–56 ✗
Saint Louis @ Wichita State +2.2 143.0 61% 69–88 ✓
Dayton @ Houston +7.1 129.9 79% 55–69 ✓
Washington @ San Diego State +3.5 145.8 63% 97–100 ✓
Le Moyne @ UC Santa Barbara +9.0 150.7 78% 72–96 ✓
High Point @ Iona +1.6 151.0 49% 82–68 ✗
Oakland @ Loyola Marymount -1.2 148.4 44% 74–69 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Southern Miss +3.4 129.6 64% 74–67 ✗
Siena @ Central Michigan +4.7 140.5 72% 56–70 ✓
Norfolk State @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.5 137.8 73% 69–66 ✗
Murray State @ UNC Wilmington +11.4 147.1 78% 81–83 ✓
Drake @ Stephen F. Austin +2.0 149.4 63% 68–92 ✓
Illinois State @ Long Beach State +6.5 147.3 71% 61–52 ✗
Milwaukee @ Stetson -0.4 143.9 43% 67–85 ✗
Cornell @ Utah Valley -3.7 148.0 40% 74–61 ✓
Tennessee @ Syracuse -6.2 143.7 22% 73–56 ✓
Sacramento State @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.1 142.0 49% 71–75 ✗
Northeastern @ Kennesaw State -5.9 150.5 27% 77–79 ✗
San José State @ Hampton -8.1 141.3 22% 71–52 ✓
The Citadel @ Idaho State +0.4 131.4 52% 62–61 ✗
Indiana @ Louisville +0.0 145.7 49% 74–66 ✗
Purdue @ Gonzaga -7.5 146.5 24% 73–63 ✓
Wright State @ Louisiana +5.7 153.8 70% 91–85 ✗
Marshall @ Florida International -0.1 146.0 47% 80–69 ✓
Tarleton State @ Austin Peay -3.8 133.2 33% 66–59 ✓
Florida State @ UNLV -2.4 145.5 39% 83–75 ✓
Fordham @ Kent State +7.2 145.7 76% 72–79 ✓
Wisconsin @ Virginia +5.5 132.8 71% 65–41 ✗
South Dakota State @ George Mason +8.0 138.3 79% 71–73 ✓
Georgia Southern @ East Carolina +8.4 153.4 78% 64–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Bellarmine +7.4 145.9 80% 64–51 ✗
Rider @ Stony Brook +2.9 139.2 62% 48–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.