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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–15 on winners spread MAE 8.3 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida @ Georgia -3.2 166.1 35% 86–66 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +8.2 137.6 78% 76–66 ✗
American University @ Lehigh -1.3 141.6 45% 82–90 ✗
UTSA @ East Carolina +9.2 142.8 82% 72–88 ✓
California @ Syracuse +1.9 145.1 60% 100–107 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +2.4 142.1 65% 68–54 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan -3.7 148.3 32% 90–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +6.5 144.5 76% 91–95 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State -4.4 138.8 38% 63–53 ✓
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +9.8 148.9 80% 71–92 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +1.1 147.7 54% 80–97 ✓
Furman @ Mercer +4.5 150.1 70% 64–69 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +13.9 143.6 88% 61–73 ✓
Alabama @ Ole Miss -7.5 157.9 29% 93–74 ✓
West Georgia @ North Alabama -0.5 143.5 44% 82–73 ✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.4 157.9 86% 81–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ Stetson -0.5 141.2 48% 62–67 ✗
Austin Peay @ Queens University -0.1 156.8 47% 95–87 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +5.1 132.9 68% 69–64 ✗
UConn @ Butler -9.4 147.7 21% 80–70 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +0.2 144.5 49% 66–77 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +1.2 158.5 53% 66–58 ✗
Providence @ Seton Hall +6.0 152.7 77% 80–87 ✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion -3.8 151.1 41% 81–79 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +10.3 151.2 81% 76–84 ✓
Colorado @ Texas Tech +12.4 158.5 86% 44–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Rice -5.6 151.4 34% 73–81 ✗
UAB @ Tulsa +12.0 157.0 84% 68–63 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota +2.7 156.1 66% 72–71 ✗
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois -6.6 141.5 28% 68–52 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -3.2 143.4 39% 62–74 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +15.6 155.5 88% 70–103 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -2.5 138.9 32% 81–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +6.7 157.0 79% 61–75 ✓
Michigan @ Northwestern -11.8 152.5 14% 87–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Kansas State -1.3 146.1 48% 91–62 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul +0.7 140.4 56% 71–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech -2.7 154.3 38% 83–67 ✓
Stanford @ Boston College -2.6 135.5 41% 70–64 ✓
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -8.9 148.5 19% 73–64 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +8.4 159.7 78% 86–85 ✗
Liberty @ New Mexico State -1.9 142.0 37% 77–75 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +1.0 152.0 55% 58–71 ✓
Seattle U @ Santa Clara +13.3 145.2 87% 72–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +25.0 141.5 91% 60–88 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific +6.1 137.1 77% 59–65 ✓
New Mexico @ Grand Canyon +1.3 143.9 57% 70–64 ✗
Penn State @ Washington +12.7 147.5 86% 63–60 ✗
NJIT @ New Hampshire +1.3 144.2 58% 76–70 ✗
UMBC @ Maine -4.3 132.5 30% 78–62 ✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +3.9 136.7 65% 69–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -4.8 161.5 32% 84–81 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -11.3 137.5 19% 73–65 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +2.9 151.8 65% 90–87 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.