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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–14 on winners spread MAE 8.9 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly	+11.1	170.7	84%	76–108	✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian	-2.0	129.1	43%	64–57	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	+4.9	142.9	67%	65–73	✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay	+2.6	164.5	59%	90–83	✗
Providence @ Georgetown	+1.0	170.1	54%	79–80	✓
Fresno State @ Grand Canyon	+9.4	138.6	80%	60–85	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	+4.4	172.5	65%	90–77	✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine	+7.0	142.1	74%	69–79	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+8.4	150.5	78%	50–74	✓
Auburn @ Alabama	+8.5	179.8	78%	84–96	✓
Oklahoma @ Texas	+5.2	161.2	68%	88–85	✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah	-7.1	147.6	26%	82–75	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	+3.3	162.5	62%	77–73	✗
Elon @ William & Mary	+6.2	169.2	71%	62–72	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena	+5.5	136.9	69%	58–63	✓
UCLA @ USC	-3.2	154.8	39%	89–68	✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota	+2.0	135.0	57%	66–67	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+2.1	144.3	57%	64–63	✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech	-5.8	151.6	30%	104–101	✓
Portland @ San Francisco	+5.7	148.9	70%	65–82	✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State	+5.3	154.8	69%	67–93	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+0.6	156.4	52%	96–72	✗
Air Force @ Nevada	+25.2	140.9	99%	59–74	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho	+5.7	160.8	70%	45–68	✓
Texas Tech @ BYU	+0.5	162.2	52%	76–82	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+12.8	157.2	88%	67–66	✗
Arizona @ Colorado	-15.5	160.6	8%	89–79	✓
Washington @ Oregon	-2.9	143.3	40%	79–85	✗
Seattle U @ Pacific	+0.1	130.6	50%	58–61	✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i	+14.0	149.0	90%	84–75	✗
Penn State @ Rutgers	+2.3	154.1	58%	62–74	✓
Colgate @ Lehigh	-1.1	154.1	46%	69–76	✗
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington	+6.8	150.3	73%	85–70	✗
Winthrop @ High Point	+6.4	166.8	72%	76–91	✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC	-3.2	125.7	39%	84–69	✓
Memphis @ Tulane	-3.3	146.4	38%	96–95	✓
Charlotte @ South Florida	+15.1	162.3	91%	60–83	✓
Boston University @ Navy	+9.6	143.1	81%	73–72	✗
Queens University @ Central Arkansas	+2.9	165.4	60%	98–93	✗
Illinois @ Maryland	-19.4	150.3	4%	78–72	✓
Temple @ Tulsa	+13.7	155.2	89%	76–78	✓
UTSA @ Rice	+12.0	149.6	86%	71–80	✓
East Carolina @ UAB	+13.0	150.1	88%	83–90	✓
Drexel @ Monmouth	+1.5	133.5	55%	57–65	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay	-1.7	150.5	44%	96–76	✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State	+5.5	153.0	69%	67–69	✓
Michigan State @ Michigan	+11.5	151.1	85%	80–90	✓
Iowa @ Nebraska	+4.4	135.0	66%	75–84	✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans	+5.5	149.6	69%	60–73	✓
Towson @ Charleston	+1.0	133.7	53%	81–56	✗
Southern Miss @ Troy	+4.1	151.9	65%	70–78	✓
Marist @ Merrimack	+0.3	126.8	51%	57–58	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman	+7.3	152.1	75%	75–81	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+5.8	141.9	70%	78–85	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.