Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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9–6 on winners spread MAE 10.9 15 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +2.6 144.8 59% 47–61 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +3.5 155.3 62% 61–92 ✓
San Francisco @ Oregon State -4.0 146.0 36% 77–78 ✗
Fairfield @ Siena +3.3 141.9 62% 61–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +3.6 170.7 63% 82–78 ✗
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +11.3 151.8 85% 62–70 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +1.9 145.2 57% 78–74 ✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara +10.0 149.7 82% 68–76 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State +6.4 147.8 72% 77–65 ✗
Campbell @ Monmouth +0.4 153.8 51% 64–74 ✓
New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +0.8 147.8 53% 61–74 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +1.6 155.4 56% 90–103 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Troy +5.4 164.0 69% 61–77 ✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State +3.4 142.8 62% 76–61 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana -3.1 156.2 39% 89–95 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.