And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–16 on winners spread MAE 13.4 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Army +0.1 150.7 50% 114–59 ✗
Florida State @ Florida +10.6 177.3 83% 76–78 ✓
Radford @ North Carolina +24.7 160.7 99% 74–89 ✓
Norfolk State @ Old Dominion +17.5 157.1 94% 57–60 ✓
Drexel @ Colgate +7.9 143.4 76% 83–90 ✓
Alcorn State @ Maryland +18.4 147.0 95% 64–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Coastal Carolina +11.4 159.1 85% 66–72 ✓
Florida A&M @ UCF +22.1 169.0 98% 60–97 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Villanova +14.4 160.5 90% 60–94 ✓
Northwestern State @ North Alabama +18.7 147.8 96% 83–87 ✓
Toledo @ Wright State +25.6 152.3 99% 81–71 ✗
Jacksonville @ High Point +17.4 164.9 94% 64–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.6 184.3 81% 95–94 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +10.6 148.8 83% 63–90 ✓
Wagner @ Fordham -2.9 150.7 40% 61–63 ✗
Chicago State @ Butler +22.8 166.8 98% 66–98 ✓
Davidson @ Charlotte +15.7 154.8 92% 62–55 ✗
NJIT @ Loyola Maryland +10.2 134.4 82% 66–64 ✗
William & Mary @ Richmond +6.1 156.1 71% 86–90 ✓
Stonehill @ Rhode Island +6.9 147.0 74% 57–80 ✓
Dayton @ Cincinnati +1.8 146.6 57% 62–74 ✓
Morehead State @ Clemson +31.0 157.6 100% 56–83 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Boston College +24.8 128.8 99% 60–59 ✗
Northeastern @ Harvard +7.4 155.7 75% 77–60 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Providence +6.9 172.8 74% 81–106 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis +6.6 152.6 72% 74–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Princeton -1.3 155.2 45% 63–73 ✗
Alabama State @ UAB +26.5 152.8 99% 77–74 ✗
Yale @ Quinnipiac -16.3 154.0 7% 97–60 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Notre Dame +23.0 143.5 98% 58–78 ✓
Kentucky @ Louisville +13.9 158.9 90% 88–96 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +26.4 149.7 99% 56–93 ✓
Wofford @ Auburn +19.9 147.1 97% 62–93 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Kansas +23.5 144.8 98% 46–77 ✓
Merrimack @ Tarleton State +17.2 160.5 94% 62–76 ✓
Tulane @ Louisiana +12.0 137.6 86% 66–62 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Rice +7.7 147.7 76% 81–69 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Oklahoma +27.7 164.8 99% 69–95 ✓
Buffalo @ DePaul +21.1 152.0 97% 66–53 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ North Dakota State +15.5 157.7 92% 68–90 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Nebraska +28.3 129.4 99% 50–69 ✓
Murray State @ SMU +5.0 153.7 67% 91–102 ✓
Queens University @ Duquesne +17.8 160.9 95% 81–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Illinois +25.2 167.5 99% 77–81 ✓
Ball State @ Wisconsin +21.6 158.6 98% 55–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Wyoming -1.8 151.1 43% 65–79 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Arizona +25.8 159.1 99% 49–84 ✓
Delaware @ BYU +19.1 146.5 96% 68–85 ✓
Memphis @ Ole Miss +21.7 148.5 98% 77–83 ✓
UC Riverside @ New Mexico +12.2 133.0 87% 68–82 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Boise State +6.5 172.4 72% 65–85 ✓
Hampton @ Virginia +12.0 152.7 86% 53–91 ✓
Western Illinois @ Cal State Bakersfield +6.0 146.2 71% 58–74 ✓
Creighton @ Gonzaga +24.8 150.5 99% 63–90 ✓
Ohio @ Saint Mary's +24.0 153.0 99% 60–90 ✓
Montana @ UNLV +18.6 161.7 95% 102–93 ✗
Binghamton @ Georgetown +32.5 139.2 100% 70–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.