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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–8 on winners
spread MAE 15.1
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indiana State
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+26.1 | 156.4 | 99% | 64–55 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
North Carolina A&T
|
+20.8 | 153.0 | 97% | 62–85 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
Georgia State
|
+28.2 | 128.6 | 99% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Seton Hall
|
-4.9 | 128.1 | 33% | 59–82 | ✗ |
Charleston Southern
@
The Citadel
|
+13.6 | 138.1 | 89% | 96–86 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Pittsburgh
|
+12.6 | 131.7 | 87% | 66–78 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Miami
|
+33.1 | 154.1 | 100% | 61–102 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Iowa State
|
+10.3 | 147.8 | 83% | 80–96 | ✓ |
Lindenwood
@
Saint Louis
|
+28.2 | 162.2 | 99% | 66–109 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
LSU
|
+12.7 | 147.2 | 88% | 58–93 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Northwestern
|
+22.0 | 149.8 | 98% | 63–110 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Xavier
|
+11.2 | 143.2 | 85% | 87–68 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Grand Canyon
|
+6.4 | 176.3 | 72% | 59–88 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Utah
|
+17.4 | 161.8 | 94% | 69–87 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Georgia Tech
|
+13.5 | 123.6 | 89% | 60–70 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Washington State
|
+14.3 | 154.6 | 90% | 71–81 | ✓ |
West Georgia
@
UCLA
|
+16.6 | 142.4 | 93% | 62–83 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
California
|
+15.1 | 156.2 | 92% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Kansas City
|
+12.9 | 163.3 | 88% | 105–91 | ✗ |
Long Island University
@
Air Force
|
+0.1 | 143.1 | 50% | 76–72 | ✗ |
UMBC
@
Morgan State
|
+10.1 | 159.1 | 82% | 81–79 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
Michigan
|
+12.7 | 161.6 | 88% | 84–85 | ✓ |
App State
@
Ohio State
|
+15.1 | 158.2 | 91% | 53–75 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
UNC Asheville
|
+24.3 | 157.0 | 99% | 64–69 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Penn State
|
+32.8 | 147.9 | 100% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.