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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–20 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
53 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.9 | 145.5 | 61% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 153.2 | 39% | 79–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 143.7 | 88% | 75–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 145.1 | 43% | 70–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 147.5 | 86% | 75–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.5 | 147.8 | 14% | 104–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 145.8 | 25% | 87–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 152.5 | 52% | 60–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 149.7 | 58% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 142.8 | 64% | 80–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 156.0 | 37% | 87–101 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.9 | 166.1 | 88% | 75–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 167.9 | 64% | 75–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 145.6 | 42% | 65–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 148.2 | 53% | 85–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 134.5 | 74% | 57–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 141.5 | 59% | 82–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.9 | 141.3 | 35% | 65–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 142.8 | 76% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 152.9 | 81% | 65–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 140.2 | 88% | 66–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 133.7 | 22% | 72–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 151.0 | 41% | 94–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 144.8 | 87% | 88–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.4 | 142.6 | 85% | 65–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.7 | 48% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 158.1 | 85% | 51–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 141.5 | 68% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 157.5 | 67% | 76–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 148.0 | 53% | 70–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 140.6 | 42% | 69–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 143.9 | 73% | 75–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 145.9 | 61% | 70–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 137.6 | 60% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 162.4 | 50% | 83–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 151.4 | 81% | 55–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.6 | 148.0 | 84% | 75–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 137.3 | 63% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.9 | 59% | 56–49 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 153.3 | 64% | 69–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 152.6 | 30% | 102–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 156.0 | 82% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 131.5 | 27% | 68–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 129.9 | 59% | 67–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 132.5 | 80% | 62–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 136.2 | 50% | 56–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 143.4 | 72% | 72–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 139.9 | 70% | 59–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 146.9 | 44% | 78–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 152.0 | 58% | 62–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 162.7 | 60% | 87–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 147.3 | 39% | 92–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.3 | 57% | 63–56 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.