I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Coastal Athletic Association · John W. Pope Jr. Convocation Center · February 15, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread CAM -3.5 Away covered
O/U 159.5 Under
Money CAM -155 / COFC +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAM win
Actual COFC +5 119 Lost
Massey CAM -1.1 (-6.1)
Massey Totals 159.5 (-40.5)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 54%
Efficiency Plus ML CAM -0.6 (-5.6) 152.0 (-33.0) 58%
Baseline Tuned ML CAM -0.9 (-5.9) 150.9 (-31.9) 53%
Baseline ML CAM -0.4 (-5.4) 154.0 (-35.0) 49%
Baseline Plus ML CAM -0.5 (-5.5) 153.4 (-34.4) 50%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 23, 2026 COFC 8783 CAM
Mar 1, 2025 COFC 8765 CAM
Jan 17, 2025 COFC 6761 CAM
Mar 1, 2024 COFC 9673 CAM
Jan 27, 2024 COFC 9067 CAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAM COFC
Overall 16-18 21-11
Conference 8-10 14-4
Home 10-4 11-4
Away 3-13 8-4
Neutral 3-1 2-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.1 75.3
Avg Pts Against 78.8 73.9
Massey -2.4 (#207) -0.6 (#176)
Bradley-Terry -0.10 (#177) 0.36 (#134)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.20 (#183) 0.20 (#151)
RPI 0.506 (#167) 0.526 (#121)
Shooting & Four Factors CAM COFC
FG% 44.3% 44.6%
3PT% 32.3% 30.1%
REB / G 33.3 37.5
OREB / G 11.6 10.3
AST / TO 0.87 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 50.5%
TOV% 18.1% 16.2%
ORB% 32.6% 29.8%
FT Rate 32.3% 31.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 14.2%
DRB% 68.8% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.8% 18.6%

Game Analysis

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