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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–10 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.5 | 135.6 | 36% | 59–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 150.0 | 77% | 75–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 131.3 | 52% | 68–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.0 | 136.0 | 22% | 78–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.9 | 124.7 | 13% | 55–46 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 134.4 | 44% | 82–93 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 136.6 | 65% | 81–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.0 | 143.0 | 22% | 85–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 140.1 | 48% | 70–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 130.7 | 84% | 95–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.6 | 129.5 | 27% | 71–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 149.4 | 73% | 84–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 135.3 | 34% | 55–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 137.9 | 84% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 129.9 | 44% | 68–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 128.3 | 37% | 67–45 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 153.8 | 73% | 76–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 148.9 | 85% | 71–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 141.8 | 46% | 75–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.7 | 149.9 | 18% | 103–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 142.0 | 61% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 148.6 | 26% | 65–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 145.0 | 90% | 65–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 138.1 | 65% | 73–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.6 | 140.5 | 90% | 71–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 147.7 | 73% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.9 | 148.4 | 87% | 64–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 157.2 | 86% | 66–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 130.5 | 42% | 69–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 153.8 | 26% | 102–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 141.0 | 85% | 76–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.2 | 145.3 | 35% | 78–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 145.4 | 24% | 79–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.3 | 135.7 | 15% | 71–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 132.4 | 89% | 51–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 142.5 | 80% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 144.7 | 86% | 80–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 147.6 | 34% | 70–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 135.0 | 62% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 139.5 | 46% | 57–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.9 | 133.7 | 23% | 68–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 142.4 | 88% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 135.5 | 33% | 65–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.5 | 125.3 | 14% | 85–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 126.1 | 67% | 60–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-14.8 | 161.0 | 13% | 86–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 156.1 | 16% | 83–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 126.4 | 78% | 46–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 135.2 | 40% | 79–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 128.6 | 63% | 67–61 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.