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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.8 | 150.0 | 85% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 126.6 | 48% | 80–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 133.4 | 38% | 70–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 140.4 | 47% | 81–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 136.9 | 44% | 70–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 144.5 | 28% | 97–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 133.8 | 34% | 76–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 139.3 | 68% | 80–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 139.3 | 26% | 69–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.4 | 133.1 | 29% | 66–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 146.3 | 76% | 64–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 146.6 | 51% | 75–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 143.5 | 88% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 161.9 | 32% | 112–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 138.9 | 63% | 77–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 135.2 | 56% | 55–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 133.7 | 36% | 89–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 142.0 | 60% | 76–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 147.6 | 37% | 72–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 124.4 | 45% | 57–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.0 | 141.3 | 87% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 137.5 | 86% | 45–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 139.5 | 70% | 63–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 134.0 | 55% | 74–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.3 | 152.2 | 29% | 66–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.8 | 142.7 | 26% | 76–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 135.9 | 22% | 90–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 133.8 | 63% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 129.9 | 67% | 54–51 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.6 | 131.3 | 27% | 56–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 128.9 | 74% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 145.5 | 89% | 72–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 139.0 | 70% | 74–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.9 | 142.4 | 29% | 100–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 137.9 | 56% | 55–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 155.9 | 79% | 86–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.6 | 126.3 | 45% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.