I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–20 on winners spread MAE 9.2 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tulsa @ Wichita State +1.1 146.8 54% 77–81 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -2.4 155.7 39% 79–89 ✗
Georgetown @ UConn +16.6 142.8 89% 75–79 ✓
Virginia @ Ohio State -3.5 146.4 38% 70–66 ✓
Memphis @ Utah State +14.5 148.1 87% 75–99 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Kansas City -14.2 146.5 13% 104–64 ✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -5.2 143.4 31% 87–69 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge -2.8 151.2 38% 60–84 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona -0.1 150.0 49% 74–79 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +2.8 140.6 63% 80–82 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -3.4 153.6 36% 87–101 ✗
South Carolina @ Alabama +16.8 164.2 89% 75–89 ✓
Auburn @ Arkansas +7.3 163.4 75% 75–88 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -1.4 143.5 43% 65–69 ✗
Texas @ Missouri +0.4 150.6 55% 85–68 ✗
Minnesota @ Washington +6.3 134.4 72% 57–69 ✓
Montana State @ Montana +1.6 141.1 60% 82–71 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Tech +0.7 141.0 53% 65–70 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +6.7 143.6 76% 57–71 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +5.6 147.8 75% 65–86 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego +11.4 139.5 87% 66–72 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pacific -4.5 134.8 29% 72–61 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -2.9 152.1 35% 94–86 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +14.2 144.4 89% 88–79 ✗
Utah @ Cincinnati +10.1 136.7 83% 65–69 ✓
Maryland @ Rutgers +1.0 144.1 60% 57–68 ✓
Indiana @ Illinois +11.9 153.9 85% 51–71 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +2.0 140.1 58% 73–83 ✓
Denver @ Omaha +0.9 157.3 53% 76–83 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -0.1 147.1 53% 70–76 ✗
Manhattan @ Canisius -0.2 140.3 45% 69–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +4.8 141.2 71% 75–76 ✓
Bradley @ Southern Illinois +2.8 144.0 66% 70–60 ✗
North Texas @ Temple +2.5 135.7 63% 65–62 ✗
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic -1.9 160.3 42% 83–81 ✓
Tulane @ UAB +7.6 146.3 79% 55–54 ✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart +9.6 144.8 84% 75–86 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +2.6 139.3 63% 74–83 ✓
Merrimack @ Quinnipiac +2.1 136.2 60% 56–49 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris +1.6 152.3 57% 69–93 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State -6.9 150.7 27% 102–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.2 155.7 76% 78–83 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -5.0 130.5 26% 68–70 ✗
Siena @ Marist +3.2 132.0 63% 67–63 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa +9.3 131.8 82% 62–86 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC -1.5 135.6 45% 56–83 ✗
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +0.7 143.3 53% 72–75 ✓
Davidson @ Dayton +3.3 140.8 65% 59–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama -2.7 145.2 37% 78–84 ✗
Charleston @ Campbell +0.9 150.9 53% 62–57 ✗
Belmont @ Murray State +0.3 164.0 51% 87–70 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -1.2 147.1 47% 92–79 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +0.9 140.4 53% 63–56 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.