Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–17 on winners spread MAE 9.3 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Providence -8.2 146.7 19% 103–98 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +1.9 129.1 62% 78–65 ✗
American University @ Colgate +5.2 147.1 71% 62–64 ✓
Saint Louis @ VCU -0.3 162.9 49% 71–62 ✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +3.6 148.8 71% 89–80 ✗
La Salle @ Rhode Island +9.1 130.0 82% 79–72 ✗
George Mason @ Fordham -3.4 130.3 29% 67–58 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's -3.0 146.8 38% 90–97 ✗
East Carolina @ Temple +12.2 141.3 88% 67–75 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +0.5 143.6 49% 83–67 ✗
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.9 141.8 68% 61–80 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +22.2 156.5 91% 49–104 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette -0.2 147.4 47% 65–66 ✗
Miami @ Wake Forest -1.5 148.1 47% 81–77 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia Tech +6.0 148.5 74% 69–68 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +10.6 132.1 84% 55–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +4.5 147.3 70% 77–82 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +14.0 144.8 89% 63–101 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +15.0 145.0 90% 67–81 ✓
Marshall @ James Madison -0.9 148.8 45% 66–64 ✓
Missouri @ Kentucky +11.7 150.7 87% 73–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State +0.3 153.1 54% 53–72 ✓
Missouri State @ Kennesaw State +1.2 143.8 56% 80–90 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State -0.2 144.3 48% 64–71 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.6 141.2 74% 71–69 ✗
Rice @ Wichita State +15.1 142.7 90% 66–64 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +2.3 153.0 65% 76–71 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +7.6 136.3 77% 76–72 ✗
Iowa State @ Baylor -4.9 155.9 26% 70–60 ✓
Illinois State @ Valparaiso -8.7 133.6 19% 71–77 ✗
Southern Illinois @ UIC -3.1 143.5 33% 57–70 ✗
Murray State @ Evansville -11.3 146.9 15% 79–69 ✓
South Florida @ North Texas -2.9 138.1 39% 74–70 ✓
Charlotte @ UTSA -7.1 141.4 23% 74–58 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas State +2.8 158.9 66% 74–86 ✓
Washington @ Purdue +14.6 143.2 87% 73–81 ✓
Kansas State @ Arizona +17.1 160.7 88% 76–101 ✓
Arizona State @ BYU +16.5 157.3 89% 76–104 ✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt +9.0 171.6 77% 90–96 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -5.1 148.8 29% 94–87 ✓
California @ Virginia +8.9 145.8 79% 60–84 ✓
SMU @ Clemson +2.1 145.8 56% 70–74 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +4.5 144.3 71% 66–93 ✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago -6.5 138.1 25% 79–64 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +9.6 159.3 83% 73–85 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.5 157.0 88% 86–99 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Boise State +9.4 137.9 82% 75–58 ✗
Hofstra @ Towson -3.5 130.6 33% 78–67 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.8 136.6 50% 63–70 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +1.9 137.6 60% 77–63 ✗
Maine @ UMBC +7.8 133.4 80% 62–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +12.8 138.8 86% 66–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.