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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–8 on winners spread MAE 6.5 52 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Ole Miss @ Auburn	+14.1	155.9	88%	76–106	✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M	+6.3	144.2	74%	86–84	✗
Notre Dame @ Clemson	+14.0	143.9	89%	68–83	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point	+18.0	160.5	91%	66–88	✓
Radford @ Gardner-Webb	-0.2	145.9	50%	63–56	✓
Kansas State @ UCF	+1.9	153.0	60%	76–80	✓
South Florida @ Temple	+4.6	153.0	69%	71–73	✓
NC State @ Syracuse	+1.8	147.9	61%	60–74	✓
Fordham @ George Mason	+12.5	136.2	87%	64–74	✓
Dayton @ Rhode Island	-0.9	149.3	49%	85–77	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Joseph's	+6.4	131.2	73%	64–75	✓
UIC @ Northern Iowa	+6.3	144.8	76%	52–74	✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland	-3.1	142.6	38%	70–67	✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate	+4.9	145.0	71%	73–81	✓
Navy @ American University	+4.6	133.2	70%	68–60	✗
Queens University @ North Alabama	+9.3	152.2	82%	69–74	✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville	+12.4	143.7	88%	72–79	✓
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast	+12.4	148.9	87%	61–80	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Florida	-0.2	161.4	50%	86–81	✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia	-3.5	141.8	33%	70–73	✗
Wofford @ Western Carolina	-10.5	142.7	16%	90–67	✓
The Citadel @ Furman	+14.6	140.2	89%	42–85	✓
Charlotte @ Tulane	+7.4	141.6	77%	64–78	✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	-0.5	145.2	47%	74–80	✗
Rice @ Memphis	+14.0	149.0	88%	72–84	✓
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago	+2.1	138.9	65%	57–77	✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-6.5	140.5	23%	59–68	✗
Drake @ Evansville	-9.7	128.7	16%	65–61	✓
Belmont @ Missouri State	-0.8	146.5	43%	74–65	✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb	+19.1	146.0	91%	60–78	✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State	+9.7	165.7	82%	78–82	✓
Penn State @ Indiana	+4.3	146.6	71%	78–83	✓
Villanova @ Seton Hall	-9.6	131.5	17%	59–54	✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss	-6.3	143.3	24%	88–82	✓
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	-11.4	142.1	16%	83–64	✓
St. John's @ Butler	-4.2	148.9	30%	76–70	✓
Kentucky @ Oklahoma	-2.1	161.7	38%	83–82	✓
Utah @ Arizona	+12.3	153.5	86%	66–83	✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest	+6.0	132.0	73%	83–75	✗
Boston College @ Stanford	+10.4	145.1	84%	60–78	✓
Bradley @ Valparaiso	-5.7	149.7	26%	76–65	✓
DePaul @ Creighton	+12.8	143.8	88%	65–75	✓
Texas @ Arkansas	+4.3	145.6	70%	81–86	✓
BYU @ Arizona State	-1.9	150.4	43%	91–81	✓
Utah State @ Boise State	+2.3	146.6	59%	65–82	✓
Ohio State @ USC	-2.0	152.3	47%	87–82	✓
SMU @ California	-5.6	153.4	29%	81–77	✓
San Francisco @ Oregon State	+1.2	141.1	57%	74–72	✗
Bryant @ UMass Lowell	-2.1	157.1	41%	79–78	✓
UAlbany @ UMBC	+1.1	155.0	56%	78–74	✗
Samford @ VMI	-7.1	148.6	22%	95–83	✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis	-6.7	148.3	24%	82–68	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.