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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–19 on winners spread MAE 8.6 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Winthrop @ Longwood	+2.1	159.5	62%	85–59	✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic	-0.3	136.6	47%	71–61	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	+4.3	122.2	68%	47–60	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+2.5	136.8	61%	69–82	✓
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst	+7.6	139.5	78%	68–90	✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut	+15.5	144.7	88%	75–84	✓
Maine @ New Hampshire	-7.6	135.5	18%	73–66	✓
Vermont @ NJIT	-7.4	126.6	21%	71–61	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay	+1.6	144.7	56%	71–76	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+8.0	150.9	79%	79–74	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell	+0.1	140.7	48%	79–60	✗
Elon @ Monmouth	-1.8	141.7	43%	76–79	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern	+9.3	141.2	82%	55–69	✓
Hampton @ Drexel	+1.9	131.8	59%	52–53	✓
William & Mary @ Towson	+4.8	142.1	73%	73–88	✓
Delaware @ Charleston	+8.6	158.3	80%	84–94	✓
Hofstra @ Stony Brook	-4.2	132.2	31%	56–59	✗
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	+1.8	138.7	62%	75–63	✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida International	-3.8	139.6	32%	61–76	✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty	+8.0	129.4	79%	55–59	✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee	+6.1	145.1	75%	66–71	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	-3.4	132.0	36%	52–67	✗
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts	-10.2	152.9	16%	77–69	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+10.6	159.5	86%	71–86	✓
Denver @ Kansas City	+5.7	135.5	73%	56–64	✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech	+7.2	141.2	77%	82–69	✗
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin	+4.4	144.3	69%	63–79	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville	+0.5	138.4	51%	83–68	✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State	+6.8	142.4	76%	55–64	✓
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois	-4.6	128.8	28%	60–71	✗
Rutgers @ Michigan	+11.2	154.5	87%	82–84	✓
UAB @ Wichita State	+2.6	153.6	66%	80–72	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	+0.3	145.8	53%	69–65	✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	+4.1	139.4	65%	66–64	✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State	+0.8	144.3	53%	76–82	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech	+1.5	143.1	57%	82–75	✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon	+10.7	148.9	85%	71–85	✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP	+2.9	145.2	64%	80–73	✗
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State	+1.1	136.5	57%	71–66	✗
San Diego @ Washington State	+12.4	155.1	87%	86–93	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	-7.4	140.0	22%	60–54	✓
Montana State @ Portland State	+2.4	137.8	61%	52–69	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge	-3.8	144.8	35%	77–71	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara	+6.2	155.6	75%	77–96	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton	-14.6	137.2	13%	76–51	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State	-2.8	136.5	39%	88–87	✓
Pepperdine @ Portland	+1.2	154.4	58%	67–87	✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U	+1.8	138.4	58%	48–72	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	-11.1	133.4	15%	58–55	✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i	-0.2	141.5	48%	82–76	✓
Brown @ Harvard	-0.7	141.2	48%	59–52	✓
Yale @ Dartmouth	-5.3	149.4	29%	72–67	✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	-0.8	145.9	48%	73–84	✗
Iona @ Niagara	+0.1	138.7	48%	65–63	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.