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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
39–17 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
56 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+9.9 | 156.1 | 84% | 70–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 130.3 | 42% | 50–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 137.8 | 59% | 79–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 129.1 | 56% | 58–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 152.6 | 66% | 87–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.6 | 135.7 | 78% | 52–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 140.4 | 45% | 83–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 139.0 | 65% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.3 | 142.0 | 81% | 72–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 142.4 | 83% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 148.5 | 38% | 61–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.6 | 141.5 | 32% | 68–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.8 | 140.8 | 36% | 58–50 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 158.5 | 48% | 74–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 164.0 | 84% | 58–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 150.2 | 84% | 80–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 160.1 | 74% | 86–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 155.7 | 76% | 82–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 151.9 | 69% | 74–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 153.3 | 65% | 100–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 145.9 | 32% | 90–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 141.6 | 65% | 78–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 154.8 | 60% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 140.7 | 85% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 136.4 | 72% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 140.1 | 30% | 78–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 139.2 | 84% | 66–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.6 | 147.0 | 15% | 83–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 155.1 | 27% | 69–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 145.5 | 44% | 71–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.9 | 146.8 | 26% | 68–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 154.9 | 75% | 75–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 147.7 | 36% | 80–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 137.7 | 60% | 61–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 148.3 | 25% | 95–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 145.3 | 85% | 62–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 153.2 | 61% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 144.4 | 45% | 92–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 154.9 | 21% | 97–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 143.8 | 79% | 63–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 146.8 | 83% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 136.5 | 86% | 73–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 127.1 | 48% | 69–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.6 | 136.4 | 35% | 79–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 139.3 | 48% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 144.0 | 77% | 51–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 139.9 | 69% | 72–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.0 | 139.5 | 80% | 50–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 148.0 | 85% | 73–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 135.3 | 34% | 73–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 143.9 | 78% | 73–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 140.0 | 68% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 130.6 | 33% | 60–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 147.5 | 42% | 81–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.2 | 144.3 | 91% | 50–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 137.4 | 67% | 77–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.