Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -298 TEX +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -4.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.7 (+1.3) | 152.7 (+17.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -6.1 (-0.1) | 155.7 (+14.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.4 (+0.6) | 155.7 (+14.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.6 (+0.4) | 156.8 (+13.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2025 | AUB 87 – 82 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 81.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#31) | 14.5 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#26) | 1.78 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#22) | 3.02 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#23) | 0.539 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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