Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -175 CAL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -1.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.3 (+1.7) | 150.0 (-26.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.5 (+4.5) | 148.3 (-24.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.4 (+3.4) | 148.5 (-24.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -2.6 (+4.6) | 150.7 (-26.7) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | FSU 95 – 89 CAL |
| Jan 23, 2025 | CAL 77 – 68 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 17-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#102) | 10.2 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#156) | 2.38 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#161) | 3.02 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#159) | 0.588 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.