Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +150 FSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -3.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.2 (+10.2) | 143.7 (+1.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -2.5 (+11.5) | 146.6 (-1.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.2 (+11.2) | 147.8 (-2.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.6 (+11.6) | 147.8 (-2.8) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | FSU 95 – 89 CAL |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FSU 63 – 61 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#116) | 9.9 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#130) | 1.59 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#129) | 2.00 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#171) | 0.575 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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