Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -455 STAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -10.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -7.6 (+1.4) | 147.3 (+1.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -9.0 (+0.0) | 145.6 (+3.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -9.5 (-0.5) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -10.3 (-1.3) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2025 | STAN 88 – 51 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#35) | 7.9 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#41) | 2.13 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#35) | 2.41 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#68) | 0.597 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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