Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -750 MIA +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +37 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -11.2 (+25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -10.5 (+26.5) | 148.2 (-9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -11.7 (+25.3) | 154.0 (-15.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -12.6 (+24.4) | 154.2 (-15.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -13.6 (+23.4) | 152.3 (-13.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MIA 79 – 70 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 17-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#85) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#59) | -1.65 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#83) | -1.68 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#58) | 0.442 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.