Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–7 on winners spread MAE 10.6 32 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Nebraska @ Michigan +10.8 147.7 83% 72–75 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma -6.2 161.3 34% 83–79 ✓
Virginia @ Notre Dame -6.6 141.6 29% 100–97 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Lamar +5.4 139.2 72% 61–82 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +9.9 148.6 83% 69–77 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +5.3 135.1 73% 81–76 ✗
Arizona State @ UCF +7.9 158.4 81% 76–79 ✓
Syracuse @ NC State +12.0 151.9 87% 68–88 ✓
Toledo @ Akron +12.8 159.2 86% 81–91 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +6.4 158.2 78% 57–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan -7.1 135.9 24% 65–100 ✗
Buffalo @ Bowling Green +7.5 147.3 76% 89–78 ✗
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -10.7 134.3 16% 76–66 ✓
Providence @ UConn +15.7 156.6 87% 81–87 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +12.3 158.9 86% 76–79 ✓
Missouri @ Alabama +11.6 161.4 83% 64–90 ✓
Indiana State @ UIC +8.0 140.3 79% 74–76 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +10.6 153.1 85% 65–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -1.1 135.7 39% 75–81 ✗
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois -2.2 140.3 43% 65–85 ✗
Kansas State @ West Virginia +5.5 143.1 68% 54–59 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana -2.3 144.6 50% 67–72 ✗
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt +6.8 157.3 75% 55–80 ✓
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH) +12.3 160.1 86% 84–86 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago -5.5 142.7 28% 85–64 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette -3.7 151.6 34% 62–86 ✗
Boise State @ San José State -12.4 141.7 18% 89–58 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Nevada +4.1 140.4 70% 60–66 ✓
New Mexico @ UNLV -5.6 150.2 29% 89–61 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Southern +16.5 140.4 90% 69–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Army +0.3 150.6 48% 64–67 ✓
Baylor @ Cincinnati +1.2 145.7 57% 57–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.