And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 8.1 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNLV @ Fresno State -8.9 145.8 21% 52–51 ✓
Belmont @ Southern Illinois +0.5 156.0 53% 73–68 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +3.1 146.5 63% 73–75 ✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +15.7 135.8 89% 60–85 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +7.2 140.6 81% 81–70 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +6.4 143.4 77% 71–78 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -4.5 154.8 31% 85–82 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -7.9 138.5 15% 82–70 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.0 155.0 74% 79–65 ✗
Kentucky @ Texas -0.1 159.9 52% 78–82 ✗
TCU @ Arizona State +5.4 137.0 70% 74–70 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +10.5 145.3 85% 57–84 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana State +2.9 140.1 66% 69–74 ✓
Marshall @ Louisiana -4.1 141.3 32% 68–79 ✗
Troy @ Arkansas State +5.5 140.8 72% 71–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.0 142.3 60% 69–81 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +9.6 162.3 83% 85–89 ✓
Seattle U @ Tarleton State -5.3 132.3 35% 64–67 ✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +7.1 156.1 80% 84–95 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +3.4 149.3 63% 87–77 ✗
South Carolina @ Florida +17.1 142.4 90% 67–88 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -6.4 140.4 25% 70–68 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +5.9 150.7 74% 65–80 ✓
Weber State @ Montana +10.0 148.0 84% 58–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +10.8 142.4 86% 83–86 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -2.4 135.6 41% 76–69 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +5.8 135.7 76% 48–76 ✓
Kansas @ Utah -5.1 143.8 34% 67–74 ✗
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.5 130.2 67% 47–64 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland -5.5 143.0 32% 78–89 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +24.8 157.2 91% 55–107 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -13.0 145.3 15% 84–61 ✓
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +12.6 138.0 87% 56–77 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -5.8 136.7 29% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State -6.0 146.7 33% 79–84 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple -1.1 161.7 45% 83–81 ✓
Siena @ Sacred Heart +0.7 146.8 54% 80–73 ✗
Michigan @ Ohio State +2.4 150.0 55% 86–83 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius -7.3 138.7 24% 73–66 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +7.2 132.9 71% 61–59 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +4.2 142.1 67% 68–60 ✗
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -5.3 167.2 26% 94–91 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +6.7 145.8 78% 74–79 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield -3.1 147.3 32% 80–67 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +3.5 124.5 62% 61–60 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's +3.5 127.9 57% 65–66 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +6.3 138.6 80% 73–79 ✓
Missouri State @ UIC +6.2 145.3 79% 58–63 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern +0.7 142.9 57% 68–64 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +9.2 134.3 83% 83–93 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -6.4 147.9 31% 68–79 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +7.2 143.7 79% 70–92 ✓
South Florida @ UAB +8.2 157.9 81% 78–85 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico +5.4 155.7 77% 79–82 ✓
Iowa @ Maryland +11.7 160.2 87% 75–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.