I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–13 on winners spread MAE 7.9 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Illinois +21.3 145.7 91% 70–89 ✓
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +9.7 139.2 81% 69–91 ✓
Murray State @ Drake -5.5 154.8 27% 90–101 ✗
Indiana State @ Bradley +7.7 154.4 80% 68–75 ✓
Colgate @ American University +0.7 143.0 57% 66–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Richmond +3.4 139.0 67% 69–68 ✗
Fordham @ Davidson +6.4 133.6 73% 63–68 ✓
Tulane @ Florida Atlantic +11.4 146.8 86% 74–79 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +1.5 141.1 56% 87–84 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +13.9 148.3 88% 56–91 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +0.3 144.6 47% 83–87 ✓
Georgetown @ Villanova +12.2 143.6 84% 51–66 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton +6.7 147.9 74% 93–94 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College -0.9 135.0 42% 62–65 ✗
Holy Cross @ Navy +9.3 133.3 79% 68–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +16.1 152.1 90% 85–79 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy -0.3 152.5 55% 83–76 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +17.5 167.5 89% 103–85 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -10.0 139.8 19% 75–77 ✗
Western Carolina @ Mercer +13.6 156.1 88% 76–88 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga -6.0 142.7 25% 67–66 ✓
Troy @ Old Dominion -4.8 157.0 29% 83–77 ✓
Texas @ Kentucky +4.5 152.5 77% 80–85 ✓
North Alabama @ Queens University +13.3 153.9 88% 62–87 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +14.9 145.3 87% 60–77 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -0.5 146.8 48% 76–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +6.5 158.6 77% 87–93 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +0.9 138.8 54% 63–69 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +15.7 131.7 88% 62–81 ✓
Temple @ Rice -2.4 140.9 41% 69–65 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa +8.7 147.7 77% 66–83 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +3.9 154.9 70% 68–64 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +3.8 141.1 69% 64–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -12.3 150.5 17% 70–84 ✗
Cincinnati @ Arizona +16.7 145.2 88% 51–77 ✓
Washington @ Nebraska +13.1 144.5 85% 66–76 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +31.1 146.6 91% 60–84 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +6.6 129.9 69% 54–59 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico +13.5 140.5 87% 74–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Arizona State -1.1 140.6 54% 75–63 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse +1.7 147.7 50% 76–74 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +10.8 159.7 84% 68–88 ✓
Washington State @ San Diego -1.4 147.5 46% 92–96 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Seattle U +4.9 138.1 74% 59–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +6.7 138.1 76% 64–73 ✓
Oregon State @ Saint Mary's +16.8 141.5 90% 51–81 ✓
Northwestern @ USC +6.6 149.4 74% 74–68 ✗
San Diego State @ Grand Canyon +1.0 144.9 56% 69–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Marshall +14.3 154.6 88% 60–115 ✓
Louisiana @ App State +8.7 129.7 72% 58–72 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +13.4 150.3 88% 74–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay +5.8 150.7 77% 62–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ West Georgia -3.7 150.8 40% 86–65 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell -3.8 144.1 40% 77–68 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +6.0 141.8 74% 74–87 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +9.5 133.3 85% 82–88 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine -2.1 127.5 36% 49–52 ✗
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +3.1 140.7 60% 81–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.