Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–15 on winners spread MAE 9.1 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Providence -8.6 148.3 16% 103–98 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +2.6 130.9 56% 78–65 ✗
American University @ Colgate +4.7 147.4 70% 62–64 ✓
Saint Louis @ VCU -1.0 162.4 59% 71–62 ✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +3.9 150.6 67% 89–80 ✗
La Salle @ Rhode Island +10.3 131.3 84% 79–72 ✗
George Mason @ Fordham -5.4 131.8 32% 67–58 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's -2.7 149.9 44% 90–97 ✗
East Carolina @ Temple +12.2 143.9 86% 67–75 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +1.0 143.9 54% 83–67 ✗
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.3 142.9 71% 61–80 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +30.7 159.3 91% 49–104 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +0.0 149.2 47% 65–66 ✓
Miami @ Wake Forest -0.9 152.4 40% 81–77 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia Tech +5.1 151.8 71% 69–68 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +10.3 131.3 85% 55–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +4.4 149.0 67% 77–82 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +14.5 143.6 89% 63–101 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +16.4 144.8 90% 67–81 ✓
Marshall @ James Madison -0.1 152.5 48% 66–64 ✓
Missouri @ Kentucky +14.7 150.2 86% 73–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State +0.2 154.7 48% 53–72 ✓
Missouri State @ Kennesaw State +1.6 144.0 52% 80–90 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +0.1 145.9 48% 64–71 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.0 143.7 69% 71–69 ✗
Rice @ Wichita State +16.3 144.3 89% 66–64 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +2.0 157.0 63% 76–71 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +7.4 136.1 75% 76–72 ✗
Iowa State @ Baylor -6.5 156.3 21% 70–60 ✓
Illinois State @ Valparaiso -7.6 135.6 24% 71–77 ✗
Southern Illinois @ UIC -3.3 146.1 39% 57–70 ✗
Murray State @ Evansville -11.7 149.0 18% 79–69 ✓
South Florida @ North Texas -4.3 141.3 31% 74–70 ✓
Charlotte @ UTSA -8.0 142.6 22% 74–58 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas State +2.5 163.1 64% 74–86 ✓
Washington @ Purdue +16.5 146.1 87% 73–81 ✓
Kansas State @ Arizona +19.1 159.8 88% 76–101 ✓
Arizona State @ BYU +18.6 157.4 89% 76–104 ✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt +7.1 173.0 77% 90–96 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -4.5 150.1 33% 94–87 ✓
California @ Virginia +10.1 146.7 78% 60–84 ✓
SMU @ Clemson +2.0 146.7 58% 70–74 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +5.1 146.4 73% 66–93 ✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago -6.6 137.0 26% 79–64 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +10.0 161.6 80% 73–85 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +13.4 157.9 88% 86–99 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Boise State +9.3 141.6 81% 75–58 ✗
Hofstra @ Towson -2.9 131.2 40% 78–67 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.4 137.4 46% 63–70 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +1.9 136.2 57% 77–63 ✗
Maine @ UMBC +8.5 131.4 78% 62–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +12.5 141.1 85% 66–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.