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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
48–15 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
63 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.4 | 130.5 | 33% | 82–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 138.3 | 74% | 57–49 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 145.1 | 53% | 85–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 150.5 | 70% | 88–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.6 | 144.8 | 89% | 63–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 144.3 | 36% | 84–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 143.9 | 77% | 67–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 147.2 | 55% | 75–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.7 | 151.2 | 88% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 148.8 | 50% | 79–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 145.6 | 84% | 68–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 146.2 | 28% | 68–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.2 | 141.2 | 88% | 55–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 129.4 | 59% | 74–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 147.8 | 50% | 72–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.8 | 145.4 | 91% | 53–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 155.8 | 86% | 87–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 144.0 | 28% | 82–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 151.1 | 88% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 147.8 | 37% | 71–98 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.8 | 147.1 | 84% | 84–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.3 | 145.7 | 19% | 80–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 143.1 | 25% | 90–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 156.6 | 83% | 68–97 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 153.4 | 30% | 70–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 140.9 | 78% | 71–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 153.7 | 86% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 136.1 | 84% | 56–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 140.7 | 71% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 149.8 | 78% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 153.3 | 67% | 65–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 140.2 | 55% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 145.1 | 57% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+31.8 | 157.6 | 90% | 55–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 146.6 | 56% | 50–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 140.0 | 38% | 70–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 160.1 | 57% | 81–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 152.8 | 42% | 81–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.6 | 142.3 | 29% | 79–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.4 | 140.3 | 91% | 58–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 145.6 | 86% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 134.8 | 68% | 43–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 125.6 | 90% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 135.5 | 83% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 148.0 | 80% | 56–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 150.9 | 61% | 58–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.2 | 139.8 | 90% | 76–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 144.4 | 83% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.1 | 148.3 | 90% | 65–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 146.1 | 52% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.8 | 143.4 | 77% | 61–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.2 | 163.6 | 88% | 75–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 136.8 | 61% | 80–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 149.1 | 62% | 83–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 132.8 | 70% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.4 | 147.1 | 85% | 61–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 138.2 | 78% | 58–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 150.3 | 46% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 149.1 | 78% | 50–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 142.8 | 73% | 58–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 159.1 | 59% | 80–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 138.1 | 29% | 65–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 140.7 | 57% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.