What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–13 on winners spread MAE 11.9 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kentucky @ Michigan State -7.4 125.3 25% 77–86 ✗
Winthrop @ Auburn +16.1 138.8 93% 65–89 ✓
Buffalo @ UConn +30.4 145.7 100% 64–84 ✓
Morgan State @ Akron +8.9 149.8 79% 59–65 ✓
Bowling Green @ Wright State +11.6 156.9 86% 71–80 ✓
Bucknell @ Saint Peter's -0.3 133.1 49% 71–82 ✗
Mercer @ Georgia State +1.6 137.2 56% 83–85 ✓
James Madison @ Howard -11.4 160.8 15% 95–69 ✓
Stony Brook @ Rhode Island +13.3 123.6 89% 64–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Fordham +3.5 149.6 63% 61–79 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +14.5 141.9 91% 64–59 ✗
Dartmouth @ Quinnipiac +25.2 160.4 99% 72–81 ✓
Rice @ Middle Tennessee +21.2 152.8 97% 46–81 ✓
Queens University @ La Salle +11.1 154.5 84% 60–72 ✓
Central Connecticut @ St. John's +24.1 160.1 99% 74–91 ✓
Binghamton @ Maryland +11.7 139.4 86% 52–76 ✓
Morehead State @ West Virginia +25.7 129.0 99% 57–75 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Temple +14.7 135.5 91% 89–87 ✗
Utah Valley @ Wake Forest +12.6 136.3 87% 65–68 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +6.3 163.5 72% 80–68 ✗
Florida A&M @ Miami +26.2 125.7 99% 61–87 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Clemson +21.9 132.9 98% 70–81 ✓
Alcorn State @ Stephen F. Austin +7.5 141.8 75% 69–60 ✗
Chattanooga @ Ole Miss +16.0 138.8 93% 58–70 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina +9.0 144.4 79% 66–72 ✓
Pacific @ North Dakota +4.6 158.7 66% 93–63 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bradley +7.6 155.6 75% 61–89 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Texas Southern +5.4 153.6 69% 82–64 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ South Dakota State +6.3 146.6 72% 62–66 ✓
New Mexico @ SMU +15.4 147.2 92% 84–63 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Oklahoma +6.6 116.9 72% 53–74 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Missouri +10.7 170.9 83% 80–105 ✓
Marquette @ Purdue +11.4 136.8 85% 70–75 ✓
San Diego State @ Stanford +7.5 137.7 75% 74–62 ✗
Montana State @ Oregon -0.0 125.8 50% 51–81 ✗
Fairfield @ Xavier +16.1 150.0 93% 65–78 ✓
Memphis @ Saint Louis +12.1 151.6 86% 84–90 ✓
Green Bay @ Wisconsin +29.6 126.7 100% 45–56 ✓
Florida International @ NC State +25.9 151.8 99% 74–107 ✓
Alabama @ South Alabama +0.8 141.7 53% 65–55 ✗
Alabama State @ San José State +27.2 141.8 99% 57–70 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ California Baptist +1.7 122.2 56% 55–62 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ UC Irvine +23.8 145.0 98% 64–79 ✓
California @ UC San Diego +6.4 131.9 72% 62–64 ✓
Duke @ Kansas -7.6 131.0 24% 64–69 ✗
Dayton @ UNLV +6.3 137.7 72% 52–60 ✓
Vermont @ USC +12.1 150.8 86% 57–59 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Kent State +22.2 136.6 98% 68–94 ✓
Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell +31.8 161.2 100% 81–90 ✓
Michigan @ Pittsburgh -9.7 142.2 19% 91–60 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.