Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -1000 ALST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -27.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -20.2 (-7.2) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -23.9 (-10.9) | 138.4 (-11.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -23.1 (-10.1) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#176) | -17.5 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#145) | -1.69 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#146) | -2.75 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#263) | 0.146 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 37.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 12.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 30.4% | 62.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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