Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | USC -500 UVM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +2 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | USC -11.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -9.4 (-7.4) | 149.0 (-33.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.8 (-3.8) | 144.4 (-28.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -9.2 (-7.2) | 146.8 (-30.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -10.8 (-8.8) | 148.1 (-32.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#215) | -3.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#325) | -0.56 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#326) | -0.82 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.221 (#327) | 0.424 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 12.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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