Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -250 EMU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +28 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -7.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -4.3 (+23.7) | 146.7 (+3.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.3 (+21.7) | 147.9 (+2.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.9 (+25.1) | 151.2 (-1.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#248) | -0.9 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#198) | -0.94 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#197) | -1.23 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#29) | 0.750 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.1% | 41.7% |
Game Analysis
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