Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +280 MICH -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +31 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -8.8 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -5.7 (-25.3) | 145.7 (+5.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -6.1 (-24.9) | 147.4 (+3.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -5.7 (-25.3) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#286) | 3.3 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#307) | 1.32 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#303) | 1.77 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#246) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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