Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -450 RICE +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +35 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -21.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -12.2 (+22.8) | 148.3 (-21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -12.4 (+22.6) | 147.4 (-20.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -11.6 (+23.4) | 150.9 (-23.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2023 | MTSU 71 – 68 RICE |
| Jan 7, 2022 | RICE 65 – 61 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#201) | -11.8 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#244) | -0.60 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#247) | -0.99 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#304) | 0.312 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 18.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 92.6% | 81.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 58.7% | 4.3% |
Game Analysis
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