Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -4000 GWEB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -9.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.2 (-6.2) | 148.1 (-10.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.9 (-3.9) | 145.4 (-7.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.1 (-3.1) | 146.4 (-8.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#133) | 2.7 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#72) | -0.58 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#72) | -0.71 (#239) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.542 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 47.2% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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