Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +20 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -28.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -27.2 (-7.2) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -20.2 (-0.2) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -21.1 (-1.1) | 150.0 (-2.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -27.0 (-7.0) | 147.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#25) | -9.2 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#79) | -0.44 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | -1.01 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.771 (#28) | 0.700 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 25.4% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 18.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 48.2% |
Game Analysis
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