Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -600 MTST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +30 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -0.3 (+30.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -3.8 (+26.2) | 132.2 (-0.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -2.0 (+28.0) | 128.3 (+3.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.4 (+27.6) | 130.9 (+1.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#197) | 9.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#312) | 2.11 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#305) | 3.53 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.263 (#301) | 0.508 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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