Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -2000 WIN +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +24 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -14.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -13.8 (+10.2) | 139.3 (+14.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -15.9 (+8.1) | 141.4 (+12.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -11.6 (+12.4) | 140.9 (+13.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#151) | -3.4 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#102) | 0.14 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#91) | 0.14 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#75) | 0.729 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 18.0% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 2.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.2% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 42.5% | 9.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 42.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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