Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -900 MORG +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -10.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.3 (-1.3) | 144.0 (-20.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -7.1 (-1.1) | 139.4 (-15.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -6.0 (-0.0) | 145.1 (-21.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -7.5 (-1.5) | 146.6 (-22.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#247) | -3.2 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#104) | -0.66 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#119) | -0.90 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.740 (#47) | 0.500 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 39.1% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 28.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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