Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Maples Pavilion · November 16, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -5.0 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total STAN win
Actual SDSU +12 136 Lost
Massey STAN -7.5 (-19.5) — —
Massey Totals — 139.0 (-3.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 76% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 83% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ STAN -1.3 (-13.3) 138.5 (-2.5) 49% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML STAN -4.4 (-16.4) 142.3 (-6.3) 64% ✗
Baseline ML STAN -4.8 (-16.8) 143.1 (-7.1) 67% ✗
Baseline Plus ML STAN -3.4 (-15.4) 145.0 (-9.0) 60% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2023 SDSU 74 – 60 STAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STAN SDSU
Overall 14-19 32-7
Conference 7-13 15-3
Home 9-6 15-1
Away 2-8 8-2
Neutral 3-5 9-4
Last 5 1-1 2-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.3 70.5
Avg Pts Against 68.4 63.6
Massey 0.1 (#185) 2.5 (#124)
Bradley-Terry 0.17 (#158) 1.08 (#69)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.39 (#152) 1.51 (#68)
RPI 0.719 (#56) 0.917 (#10)
Shooting & Four Factors STAN SDSU
FG% 48.4% 46.2%
3PT% 23.7% 37.5%
REB / G 37.0 34.5
OREB / G 6.5 9.5
AST / TO 0.75 1.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 51.3%
TOV% 22.7% 14.8%
ORB% 22.4% 27.5%
FT Rate 38.9% 35.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.0% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 14.6% 25.7%
DRB% 77.2% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 17.5% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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