Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +12 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -7.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -1.3 (-13.3) | 138.5 (-2.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -4.4 (-16.4) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -4.8 (-16.8) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.4 (-15.4) | 145.0 (-9.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | SDSU 74 – 60 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#185) | 2.5 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | 1.08 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#152) | 1.51 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.719 (#56) | 0.917 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 38.9% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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