Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -8000 CCSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +17 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -23.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -19.7 (-2.7) | 153.8 (+11.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -21.0 (-4.0) | 155.2 (+9.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -18.4 (-1.4) | 153.2 (+11.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -22.4 (-5.4) | 155.2 (+9.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#76) | -8.4 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#113) | -1.43 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#104) | -1.91 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#217) | 0.326 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.6% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 43.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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