Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -700 UVU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -12.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -10.1 (-7.1) | 141.4 (-8.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -7.3 (-4.3) | 141.0 (-8.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -9.9 (-6.9) | 140.8 (-7.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -12.9 (-9.9) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#194) | -2.7 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#90) | -0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#89) | -0.10 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#75) | 0.521 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 47.5% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
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